Inversis focuses on alternative investments, liquidity, European credit and European and emerging market equities in the third quarter

Jul 8, 2026

Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, head of macroeconomic strategy at Inversis, anticipates a “deliberative pause” by the Federal Reserve and a reasonable risk of a rate rise before the end of the year.
The firm highlights that equities are at record highs despite the energy shock, the impact of which was mitigated by a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of oil reserves by the IEA, China’s inventories and, above all, the AI investment cycle.
In its portfolio, the firm prioritises carry over duration and diversification across geographies, factors and real assets, whilst underweighting US equities, sovereign bonds, long-duration bonds and US high-yield bonds.
For Inversis, the Versailles agreement does not eliminate risk, with the nuclear negotiations, a possible permanent toll and Israel’s position in Lebanon remaining the main sources of uncertainty.

Madrid, 7 July 2026 – Inversis has presented its macroeconomic strategy for the third quarter at a time when equities remain at record highs despite geopolitical turmoil, whilst fixed income continues to face pressure from rising interest rates, as noted by Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, the firm’s head of macroeconomic strategy. The firm is focusing its positioning on carry trades with controlled durations, diversification across geographies, factors and real assets, and liquidity as a strategic asset.

Uncertainty persists in the Strait of Hormuz

“The Versailles agreement is the best possible outcome for June, but it is not the end of the risk,” warns Muñoz-Alonso. Although the market is pricing in “a benign outcome”, Inversis identifies three areas of uncertainty that remain unresolved: the nuclear negotiations, a possible permanent toll at the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel’s position in Lebanon.

Inversis attributes the absence of a market crash to four factors: a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the coordinated release of strategic reserves, China’s high inventory levels at the start of the conflict, and support from the artificial intelligence investment cycle. According to Muñoz-Alonso, rising energy costs take between three and six months to be reflected in price indices; consequently, Inversis is maintaining partial hedging on energy and cautiously reducing duration until the 60-day negotiation window closes.

A less predictable Fed and the dollar on a tactical pause

Inversis believes the Federal Reserve is heading towards a deliberative pause, with the risk skewed towards further rate rises before the end of the year should inflation persist. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve introduces, according to Muñoz-Alonso, a regime of reduced monetary predictability, in which the market will have less clear guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Although the Fed is keeping rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range, Inversis highlights that the new Summary of Economic Projections raises the median expected rate for the end of 2026 to 3.8%, compared with the 3.4% forecast in March. The firm also notes that nine of the 18 FOMC members anticipate at least one rate rise this year, whilst six of them foresee two increases of 25 basis points. At the same time, the PCE forecast for 2026 has risen from 2.7% to 3.6% – a jump of 90 basis points – reflecting the view that the Hormuz Strait crisis is seen as a risk of persistent inflation.

As for the dollar, Inversis does not view its rebound as a fundamental shift in trend. “The structural depreciation of the dollar has not disappeared; it is merely on hold,” argues Muñoz-Alonso, who observes that the current rally is driven by interest rate expectations rather than an improvement in the structural factors that explained January’s fall. This assessment reinforces Inversis’s preference for emerging markets over developed ones.

Europe faces monetary tightening and China is emerging from deflation

Looking at Europe, Inversis recommends maintaining caution on duration and keeping a close eye on peripheral spreads. All this against a backdrop in which the continent is experiencing a combination of high inflation — with an overall rate of 3.2 per cent in May and core inflation rising from 2.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent — and weak growth — revised downwards to 0.9 per cent for 2026 — although it retains the potential for an equity re-rating relative to the United States, according to Muñoz-Alonso.

For Inversis, Europe retains two active levers which not only offer no immediate relief but also work in opposite directions. Spending on defence and energy infrastructure underpins fiscal policy, but its impact on GDP is felt with a lag, whilst imported inflation is passed on more quickly. At the same time, the ECB is tightening financial conditions once again just as growth is losing momentum, having raised interest rates to 2.25 per cent.

As for China, Inversis highlights that the PPI for May rose by 3.9 per cent, bringing an end to three years of deflation driven by the imported impact of the energy shock. In the firm’s view, the country retains real fiscal space and its reflationary process is providing support for both industrial raw materials and commodity-exporting emerging markets.

Fixed income, equities and commodities

In equities, Inversis maintains a selective approach and is underweight on the US, where high valuations and the concentration of growth among the big AI winners increase the risk of “exuberance”. The firm sees greater relative upside potential in European and emerging market equities, with expected 12-month returns of between 7% and 11%, compared with the 4%–8% forecast for the United States, underpinned by more reasonable valuations, Chinese reflation and a structurally weak dollar.

In fixed income, the firm prioritises carry over duration, favouring the short end of the curve and European investment-grade bonds. With short-term rates at around 3.75–4.2 per cent, liquidity and very short-term bonds are regaining appeal due to their lower volatility, whilst in credit, Inversis is overweight in European investment grade, with an expected return of 4–6 per cent, and European high yield, with a forecast of 6–8 per cent. Conversely, it remains underweight in sovereign bonds, long-dated bonds and US high yield.

In commodities, Inversis maintains a constructive outlook, particularly on industrial raw materials, supported by Chinese reflation, and on energy as a partial hedge until the Hormuz MOU is finalised. On gold, the firm remains neutral: the structural weakness of the dollar continues to provide underlying support, but higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost and call for tactical caution.

Asset Allocation

Inversis’s portfolio construction is structured around three pillars: a preference for emerging markets over developed markets; real assets and European credit over duration; and liquidity, which once again holds tactical value and offers its own returns.

The firm believes that, during episodes of supply-side inflation and despite what has been seen in recent months, the correlation between equities and bonds should turn positive, meaning that diversification must go beyond the traditional portfolio. In this regard, Muñoz-Alonso warns that simply adding more equity funds does not achieve diversification if they are all exposed to the same large technology stocks, and advocates building diversification across geographies, factors and real assets.

In the alternative investments sector, Inversis is once again focusing on private credit, infrastructure and real estate, where it expects 12-month returns of between 8% and 12%, underpinned by a complexity premium that is gaining value relative to traditional public liquidity.

In terms of relative positioning, the firm is overweight in European and emerging market equities, European investment-grade and high-yield bonds, liquidity and alternative investments. Conversely, it is underweight in US equities, US and European government bonds, long-dated bonds and US high-yield bonds, and maintains a neutral view on peripheral government bonds.

Liquidity takes on a central role. With short-term rates at around 3.75%–4.2%, it ceases to be an opportunity cost and becomes an active position, offering a positive real carry, an expected return of 2%–3% over 12 months and the capacity to deploy capital in the event of shocks.

The firm is calibrating this positioning against three tail risks. In a positive scenario, Inversis assigns a subjective probability of 15–20 per cent to a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran, which could push Brent crude to around $65–70 and ease global inflation. At the negative end of the spectrum, it estimates a 25–30 per cent probability of a breakdown in the MOU and a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil returning to the $100–110 range and central banks having no scope to cut interest rates. Finally, on the structural front, Inversis assigns a 10–15 per cent probability to a US fiscal crisis, with public debt potentially reaching 120 per cent of GDP and pushing up the premium demanded by the bond markets.

About Inversis

Inversis, in which Banca March and Euroclear hold stakes, is Spain’s leading provider of technology solutions and service outsourcing for financial institutions, insurers and new entrants to the distribution of investment products. Since its inception, Inversis has consistently invested in technology and innovation to adapt swiftly to the needs of the institutional sector. Thanks to Inversis’s technology, its institutional clients can outsource activities and processes that do not form part of their core business, thereby increasing their efficiency. In addition to being an investment product platform, Inversis provides brokerage, settlement and custody services, as well as state-of-the-art technology outsourcing solutions; treasury and capital markets services; custodian services; brokerage services, online brokerage and analytical services.