Inversis forecasts global growth of 3.3% in 2026 amid high geopolitical uncertainty
- At a time of macroeconomic stability, Inversis estimates that growth in the United States will be 2.4%, above Europe (1.3%), with no clear signs of immediate recession.
- The entity highlights the consolidation of geopolitics as the main focus of risk and volatility for the global macroeconomic scenario.
- The Federal Reserve could implement two rate cuts in 2026 according to Inversis' baseline scenario.
- Inversis shows a preference for quality credit, defensive sectors and selective exposure to equities.
Madrid, 22 January 2026 – Inversis forecasts that the global economy will grow by 3.3% in 2026, in a context of macroeconomic stability but with increased geopolitical risks. According to the analysis of its chief macroeconomic strategist, Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, the projections reinforce the idea of a scenario of continuity, although without a clear cyclical momentum. The United States remains relatively more dynamic, with estimated growth of around 2.4%, while Europe is advancing at a more moderate pace, close to 1.3%, with very uneven performance between countries.
United States: recession as a narrative rather than a baseline scenario
Muñoz-Alonso points out that, in the United States, the debate about a possible recession continues, but without being reflected in the data. The economy is showing signs of slowing down, but not of contraction. As a result, the International Monetary Fund has improved its growth forecasts from 2.1% in 2025 to 2.4% this year, pointing to a scenario of slow growth.
It also notes that the labour market is adjusting gradually and unevenly, without the typical patterns of a classic recession. The rise in unemployment is contained and concentrated in specific groups, while skilled employment is showing greater resilience. This behaviour is consistent with an economy that is losing momentum but remains capable of absorbing the adjustment.
Consumer confidence, after hitting lows throughout 2024, improved at the end of 2025, helping to stabilise the economic scenario. In this context, Inversis believes that the US economy is moving through a phase of contained fragility, far from a deep recession.
Europe: moderate and highly uneven growth across countries
In Europe, growth remains weaker than in the United States, although there are signs of stabilisation. The European Central Bank (ECB) revised its forecasts slightly upwards at the end of last year, but its estimates remain well below those for the United States.
Thus, performance varies greatly between countries. While peripheral economies such as Spain maintain growth rates close to 2.3% and some Eastern European countries such as Poland exceed 3%, the large economies at the core of Europe are struggling to advance. In the case of Germany, the approval of an expansive fiscal package in March could translate into improved growth from 2026 onwards, at around 1.2%, acting as a possible catalyst for the region as a whole.
Geopolitics, the main source of volatility
For Inversis, geopolitics is consolidating as the main source of risk for the macroeconomic scenario. The main sources of friction are in Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, keeping the risk of episodes of volatility high, which could be transferred to energy prices, inflation and financial risk premiums.
In the case of Venezuela, the entity maintains that a possible partial reintegration into international energy markets could have limited effects on market equilibrium due to the country's actual production capacity. With regard to Iran, they highlight the risk of disruption, with scenarios that could structurally raise risk premiums.
Inflation and monetary policy: from shock control to risk management
Inversis observes that central banks have left behind the most intense phase of fighting inflation and are now entering a stage of risk management. The sharp increase in interest expenditure and fiscal tensions limit the scope for maintaining high rates for a long time. According to forecasts for the end of 2025, Inversis' baseline scenario envisages up to two rate cuts by the Fed throughout 2026, while in Europe a relatively stable interest rate environment is expected until mid-2027.
Asset Allocation
In fixed income, Inversis overweight quality credit and avoids the longer ends of the curve, where fiscal risk is greater. The focus is on medium durations, where the risk-return ratio is more attractive.
In equities, the firm maintains exposure in line with the benchmark, with a clear preference for defensive and structurally favoured sectors such as healthcare, industry and defence, while underweighting consumer discretionary, real estate and utilities. Artificial intelligence is no longer treated as a homogeneous block and is now analysed more selectively, clearly differentiating between winners and losers.
About Inversis
Inversis, owned by Banca March and Euroclear, is Spain's leading provider of technology and outsourcing solutions for financial institutions, insurance companies and new entrants in the distribution of investment products. Since its creation, Inversis has invested continuously in technology and innovation in order to adapt quickly to the needs of institutional business. Thanks to Inversis' technology, its institutional clients can outsource activities and processes that are not part of their core business, thereby increasing their efficiency. In addition to being an investment product platform, Inversis provides brokerage, settlement and custody services and state-of-the-art technology outsourcing solutions; treasury and capital market services; depositary services; brokerage services, online brokerage and analysis services.