Inversis forecasts a “contained” conflict in Iran and opts for a defensive and cautious portfolio
- The firm forecasts a base-case scenario of between three and six months of “partial blockades, slow negotiations and back-and-forth”, with Brent crude at around $95–$105 and gas prices between $48–$55.
- Inversis is focusing on “commodities as a structural asset, short durations and highly selective equity exposure across sectors”, with geopolitics as the key determining factor.
- The fund manager is overweight in the defence, aerospace and energy sectors, as well as commodities and gold, whilst underweight in technology, particularly software, as well as long-term fixed income and consumer discretionary.
- Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, head of macroeconomic strategy, warns of a possible stagflation scenario and identifies the “wall of maturities” in private credit as a key risk between 2026 and 2028.
Madrid, 22 April 2026 – Inversis has presented its investment strategy for the second quarter of 2026, characterised by a cautious stance and a defensive bias in asset management, with geopolitics as the main determining factor. The firm forecasts a scenario of “contained conflict” in Iran that will shape the direction of prices and growth in the coming months. Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, its head of macroeconomic strategist, warns of a potential risk of stagflation and an imminent “wall of maturities” in private credit, recommending selective exposure focused on commodities, safe-haven assets and strategic sectors such as defense, aerospace and energy.
A strategy that considers three scenarios
Inversis assesses three possible scenarios regarding the conflict in Iran that will shape its portfolio allocation. The base case scenario, which they assign a 45% probability to, involves the continuation of a contained conflict, “with partial blockades that come and go and slow, interrupted and resumed negotiations”. In this scenario, lasting between three and six months, Brent would trade in the current range of $95–$105, and the price of gas would be significantly higher than before the conflict (TTF between $48–$55).
On the other hand, the organisation assigns a 35% probability to a “long, protracted conflict spreading to a large number of countries in the region”, with the price per barrel averaging $140 and a high probability of recession, and a 20% probability of a scenario marked by a cessation of hostilities, which would lead to a declared peace within no more than two months, with Brent trading between $72–$80 and gas between $38–$44 per megawatt hour.
Among the range of scenarios analysed by Inversis, real GDP forecasts place China as the most resilient economy, with estimated growth of between 4.6% and 4%. For its part, the United States would record growth of between 2.2% and 1.5%, whilst the Eurozone would show greater fragility, fluctuating within a range of between 1% and 0.4%.
At the same time, inflation rates are set to rise across the board due to the deterioration of the geopolitical environment. According to the organisation, average annual inflation is expected to be between 3.7% and 4.9% in the United States, between 2.3% and 4.4% in the Eurozone, and between 1% and 2% in China. This context will have a direct impact on the labour market, which is expected to deteriorate significantly depending on the severity of the scenario considered, with average unemployment of between 6.2% and 6.7% in the Eurozone, between 4.2% and 4.8% in the United States, and between 5.3% and 5.8% in China.
“Interest rates are going to rise,” predicts Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, who stresses that “when you have a supply shock and interest rates rise, a recession is triggered, and we are in a scenario of stagflation – inflation with negative growth.” The chief strategist at Inversis believes this is “a possibility if the situation drags on, although it is still a long way off”.
The adverse environment in the United States
Muñoz-Alonso points to “an adverse economic environment” in the United States, highlighting that the country ended 2025 with a trade deficit of approximately 70 points and that by the start of 2026 the situation had worsened. He also highlights an “extremely high” federal deficit of 6.2% and a net federal public debt set to reach 120% within nine years, a situation not seen since the Second World War.
Inversis expects two rate cuts by the Fed, bringing the rate down to 3.25%, with an upward bias in inflation regardless of the tariff war, the deficit and the impact of immigration. Regarding the labour market outlook, “although the labour market is not in a critical phase, it is slowing down and consolidating at levels consistent with lower growth than in the recent past,” notes Muñoz-Alonso, who also points out that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, at 47.6 points, is at its lowest reading since the index was created.
At Inversis, they see a possible impeachment in the United States as a likely prospect: “Everything suggests that the Republican Party will lose the elections and that the Democrats, once they have won the House of Representatives, will vote for it, although without securing the two-thirds majority required in the Senate to make a conviction effective”.
China, “the dark horse”
Muñoz-Alonso highlights that, whilst 84% of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, China “has significantly improved its position compared to last year and is improving with every day that the conflict drags on. This is due to its diversification of supply and lower energy costs, which means that China “can weather the shock with greater time and certainty than other Asian countries”.
Similarly, Muñoz-Alonso highlights that exports are the country’s main driver. China’s trade surplus is set to reach a new all-time high in 2026, forecast at $1.3 trillion.
Germany, “the big surprise” in Europe
According to Inversis, Europe “is maintaining a degree of stability compared to what we are seeing in the rest of the world” and Germany “is the big surprise”, moving from negative growth in 2023 and 2024 and +0.2% in 2025 to 1.5% as a result of Europe’s rearmament drive and the fiscal package approved in the country last year.
“The other countries are continuing with current growth trends, with Spain and Poland leading the way at 2.5% and 2.8% respectively.” With EU defence spending forecast at €381 billion in 2025, 11% higher than in 2024, “the path towards strategic and military independence from the US is yielding very significant benefits in terms of growth, with downside risks reflected in rising public deficits,” explains Muñoz-Alonso. The European Central Bank will remain on hold at 2%.
Asset Allocation
In terms of portfolio composition, at Inversis they are opting for “commodities as a structural asset, short durations and highly selective equity, always with a sector-focused approach” within the scenario of contained conflict. A bullish scenario will spark risk appetite, with longer durations in fixed income, equity markets generally returning to pre-crisis positions and heavily invested in cyclicals, whilst a bearish scenario would lead to a ‘flight to safety’, with safe-haven assets such as gold, the dollar and speculative positions in energy.
As part of their “defensive and cautious” portfolio recommendation for the coming quarter, Inversis is opting for “highly tactical, sector-focused and defensive” positions in equities, with a significant reduction in their risk budget allocation, whilst in fixed income they are maintaining the benchmark overall, with a reduction in government bonds. In Investment Grade, they are opting to exit the US and take positions in emerging markets. They are also increasing liquidity by 15 points and moving from 0 to 10 in alternatives, with a significant weighting in gold, commodities and derivatives.
Inversis is overweight in defense and the aerospace sector, as well as energy, commodities and gold. On the other hand, they remain neutral on infrastructure, European banking and industrial commodities, underweighting technology (especially software), long-term fixed income and consumer discretionary.
Private credit is “the elephant in the room”, according to Muñoz-Alonso, who points to a “significant deterioration in operating parameters, but not a systemic crisis”. “For a long time, these companies have been refinanced to prevent asset revaluation, and as a result, between 2026 and 2028 we will face a wall of maturities”, he concludes.
About Inversis
Inversis, owned by Banca March and Euroclear, is Spain's leading provider of technology and outsourcing solutions for financial institutions, insurance companies and new entrants in the distribution of investment products. Since its creation, Inversis has invested continuously in technology and innovation in order to adapt quickly to the needs of institutional business. Thanks to Inversis' technology, its institutional clients can outsource activities and processes that are not part of their core business, thereby increasing their efficiency. In addition to being an investment product platform, Inversis provides brokerage, settlement and custody services and state-of-the-art technology outsourcing solutions; treasury and capital market services; depositary services; brokerage services, online brokerage and analysis services.